How do you find out about the population of a country? The whole Earth? Number and reproduction of the world population Types of population reproduction
Once upon a time, my mother’s friend asked me a question: “Do you know how many people live on the planet?” And the only thing I could answer then was a lot. Even though I was about 7 years old then, and it seems there is nothing shameful in not knowing the size of the Earth’s population at that age, I still feel ashamed when I remember this incident. Aunt Marina then laughed at my naive childish answer and told me how the number of people in a city, country and throughout the world is determined.
How to find out the population of a country
Keeping records of the number of people in a country is a difficult job. In order for the data to be accurate, it is necessary to control how many people enter the country and how many leave it; how many children are born per day, and how many people die.
But, since updating this data every day is hardly necessary, the number of inhabitants of the country is calculated at a pre-agreed moment. Usually this is the middle of the year (it’s convenient to calculate using the arithmetic average of the population at the beginning of the year and at the end) or the end of the year (in Russia, just such data is most often used).
In addition to constant registration, countries conduct population censuses from time to time. A certain date is chosen for it - the “critical moment” of the census - and each census taker must record the fact that a person is in the country at that particular time. However, the census itself can last more than one week.
How to find out the population of the entire Earth
On the one hand, this task looks simpler. You just need to count the number of inhabitants of each country in the world and add up all the numbers. But here, too, there are difficulties. Indeed, for better accuracy of the result, all countries (there are 191 of them) must conduct population censuses at the same time, and this is not easy.
- William Petty first tried to find out the size of the Earth's population in 1682;
- the number of people in a state was counted back in the ancient world;
- Censuses similar to modern ones were first conducted in Scandinavia in the 18th century.
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The Earth's population has been increasing throughout history, but this process occurs with varying intensity. This is clearly evidenced by data on periods when humanity reaches billions of people: 1 billion people. - 1820; 110 years later in 1930 - 2 billion people, 30 years later in 1960 - 3 billion people, 14 years later in 1974 - 4 billion people, 13 years later in 1987 - 5 billion people ., 12 years later in 1999 - 6 billion people. The periods of reaching the last billion-dollar milestones indicate a decrease in the intensity of the global population growth process (Fig. 6.1 and Fig. 6.2).
Rice. 6.1. Annual growth of world population since 1950, million people.
Rice. 6.2. Annual world population growth since 1950, %
The population growth rates of the main macroregions of the world were different, as a result of which there were changes in their share in the total world population (see ranked series).
Ranked number of world regions by share of the total world population:
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1500-1800 |
1900-1950 |
1990-2000 |
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In the period 2000-2005. The average annual growth rates of the world population are: the whole world - 1.3%, Europe - -0.05%, America - 1.2%, Africa - 2.2%, Asia - 1.5%, Australia - 0.6 %.
Many specialized institutions monitor changes in the world population. These include the US Bureau of Censuses, on whose official website there are the so-called “world population clocks” (POPClocks), which make it possible to learn in real time ON-line about the size of the Earth’s population (Fig. 6.3).
Rice. 6.3. World Population Clock
In modern demogeographical science, a scale of countries in the world by population has emerged - countries with a population of more than 500 million people. are called the largest; 100-500 million people. - large; 50-100 million people - welterweight; 20-50 million people - average; 10-20 million people. - small; 5-10 - small; less than 5 - the smallest and dwarf states.
In the course of historical development, countries of the world, like regions, change their positions on the world stage in terms of population. Having studied the demographic features of the world, it is easy to understand that the largest developing countries in Asia and Africa are ahead in population growth rates and are taking first positions. As of 2003, the top ten countries by population are:
Mexico has crossed the hundred million mark – 104,907,991 people.
Within the world's macroregions there are also leaders in population size. In Europe these are: Germany - 82.6 million people, France - 59.8 million people, Great Britain - 59.2 million people; in Asia: China, India, Indonesia (see data above); in Africa: Nigeria, Egypt - 2.1 million people, Ethiopia - 70.7 million people; in North America:
USA, Mexico, Canada - 31.6 million people; V South America: Brazil, Colombia - 44.2 million people, Argentina - 36.9 million people.
As you know, in 1999 the world population crossed the threshold of 6 billion inhabitants. Humanity is faced with very important questions: is it a lot or a little, is it good or bad, what are the consequences of demographic growth, where is the main demographic burden concentrated, etc. The 1999 report of the UN Population Fund “6” was devoted to the solution of these and many other questions. billions: time to choose.” It revealed the main trends and changes in demographic models of world development:
1. The fastest growing regions are sub-Saharan Africa and South and West Asia. However, in Europe, North America and Japan, population growth rates have slowed or stopped. The United States is the only developed country that continues to project significant population growth, driven primarily by immigration.
2. Global consensus has been reached regarding the ongoing demographic policy. The program of the International Conference on Population (Cairo, 1994) is feasible and realistic. Many countries have adopted new development policies that take demographic issues into account. Two thirds of all countries have introduced legislation to promote gender equality and women's empowerment. Almost all countries in Latin America, more than half of Asian countries and a number of countries in Africa have introduced institutional changes to ensure protection of women's rights in areas such as inheritance, property and employment.
3. Reducing fertility rates has certain economic benefits, since a significant proportion of young people mature and become people of working age. This phenomenon was called the “demographic window” and its effect was used by the countries of East Asia. A similar situation is expected to develop in South Asia and Africa over the next two decades.
Changing demographic patterns occurs under the influence of:
1) different population growth. In 1960, 70% of the world's population lived in developing countries; this figure is currently 80% and these countries account for 95% of population growth. Africa's population has tripled since 1960, and the continent has the highest rate of population growth. In 1960, Europe's population was twice that of Africa; It is estimated that by 2050 the number of Africans will be three times the number of Europeans. And since 1960, the population of Asia, the most populous region, has more than tripled, as has the population of Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, the population of North America has increased by 50%, and Europe by only 20%, and this figure is currently fairly stable.
2) the increasing scale of urbanization. Cities continue to grow throughout the developing world. In 1960, every third inhabitant of our planet
lived in any city; Today, almost half of the total population lives in cities and by 2030, the urbanization rate is projected to be more than 60%. More and more cities are becoming megacities with populations exceeding 10 million people. The number of such cities will increase from 2 in 1960 to 26 by 2015, with up to 22 megacities located in least developed regions and 18 of them in Asia.
3) international migration. In all regions, international migration is high on the policy agenda. Migrant workers send more than US$70 billion home each year in the form of postal orders, and industries in some countries depend entirely on their skills. The number of female migrants is increasing.
NUMBER AND DYNAMICS OF POPULATION
Demography(from Greek demos- people and grapho- I am writing) is the science of the patterns of population reproduction, studying its numbers, natural growth, age and sex composition, etc.
The scientific theory of population considers the population participating in labor as the main productive force of society, the basis of all social production. Constantly interacting with nature (geographical environment), the population plays an active role in its transformation. At the same time, the population also acts as the main consumer of all created material goods. That is why population size is one of the important factors in the development of each country, and indeed of all humanity.
Table 1. Global population since 1000
Table 2. World population growth 1950-2001.
| Year | Total, million people |
Annual growth, million people |
Year | Total, million people |
Annual growth, million people |
| 1950 | 2527 | 37 | 1981 | 4533 | 80 |
| 1955 | 2779 | 53 | 1982 | 4614 | 81 |
| 1960 | 3060 | 41 | 1983 | 4695 | 80 |
| 1965 | 3345 | 70 | 1984 | 4775 | 81 |
| 1966 | 3414 | 69 | 1985 | 4856 | 83 |
| 1967 | 3484 | 71 | 1986 | 4941 | 86 |
| 1968 | 3355 | 74 | 1987 | 5029 | 87 |
| 1969 | 3629 | 75 | 1988 | 5117 | 86 |
| 1970 | 3724 | 78 | 1989 | 5205 | 87 |
| 1971 | 3782 | 77 | 1990 | 5295 | 88 |
| 1972 | 3859 | 77 | 1991 | 5381 | 83 |
| 1973 | 3962 | 76 | 1992 | 5469 | 81 |
| 1974 | 4012 | 74 | 1993 | 5556 | 80 |
| 1975 | 4086 | 72 | 1994 | 5644 | 80 |
| 1976 | 4159 | 73 | 1995 | 5734 | 78 |
| 1977 | 4131 | 72 | 1996 | 5811 | 77 |
| 1978 | 4301 | 75 | 1997 | 5881 | 71 |
| 1979 | 4380 | 76 | 1998 | 5952 | 71 |
| 1980 | 4457 | 76 | 1999 | 6020 | 68 |
| 2000 | 6091 | 71 |
In 1987, the world population reached 5 million people, and already in 1999, on October 12, it exceeded 6 million people.
Table 3. World population by country groups.
Table 4. Share of individual groups of countries in the world population, world GDP and world exports of goods and services in 2000, in%
| World population | World GDP* | World export | |
| Industrialized countries | 15,4 | 57,1 | 75,7 |
| G7 countries | 11,5 | 45,4 | 47,7 |
| EU | 6,2 | 20 | 36 |
| Developing countries | 77,9 | 37 | 20 |
| Africa | 12,3 | 3,2 | 2,1 |
| Asia | 57,1 | 25,5 | 13,4 |
| Latin America | 8,5 | 8,3 | 4,5 |
| Countries with economies in transition | 6,7 | 5,9 | 4,3 |
| CIS | 4,8 | 3,6 | 2,2 |
| CEE | 1,9 | 2,3 | 2,1 |
| For reference: | 6100 million people | $44550 billion | $7650 billion |
| *By currency purchasing power parity | |||
Table 5. Population of the largest countries in the world (millions of people).
| Countries | Number of inhabitants in 1990, million people |
Countries | Number of inhabitants in 2000, million people |
| China | 1120 | China | 1284 |
| India | 830 | India | 1010 |
| Soviet Union | 289 | USA | 281 |
| USA | 250 | Indonesia | 212 |
| Indonesia | 180 | Brazil | 170 |
| Brazil | 150 | Pakistan | 238,4 |
| Japan | 124 | Russia | 230,3 |
| Pakistan | 112 | Bangladesh | 196,1 |
| Bangladesh | 112 | Japan | 138,5 |
| Nigeria | 90 | Nigeria | 121,6 |
| Mexico | 86 | Mexico | 121,6 |
| Germany | 80 | Germany | 121,6 |
| Vietnam | 68 | Vietnam | 121,6 |
| Philippines | 60 | Philippines | 121,6 |
| Türkiye | 59 | Iran | 121,6 |
| Italy | 58 | Egypt | 121,6 |
| Thailand | 58 | Türkiye | 121,6 |
| Great Britain | 57 | Ethiopia | 121,6 |
| France | 56 | Thailand | 121,6 |
| Ukraine | 52 | France | 121,6 |
| Commentary on Table 21. At the beginning of the 21st century, the population of Russia decreased to 144.1 million people. (data as of 10/01/2001), as a result of which it missed Pakistan ahead. | |||
Table 6. World population forecast for 2025
| The whole world, regions |
Population size, million people |
The whole world, regions |
Population size, million people |
| The whole world | 7825 | Africa | 1300 |
| Economically developed countries |
1215 | North America | 365 |
| Developing | 6610 | Latin America | 695 |
| CIS | 290 | Australia | 40 |
| Foreign Europe | 505 | ||
| Foreign Asia | 4630 |
Table 7. Forecast of the number of inhabitants in the twenty largest countries by population in the world for 2025.
| Countries | Population size, million people |
Countries | Population size, million people |
| China | 1490 | Japan | 120 |
| India | 1330 | Ethiopia | 115 |
| USA | 325 | Vietnam | 110 |
| Indonesia | 275 | Philippines | 110 |
| Pakistan | 265 | Congo | 105 |
| Brazil | 220 | Iran | 95 |
| Nigeria | 185 | Egypt | 95 |
| Bangladesh | 180 | Türkiye | 88 |
| Russia | 138 | Germany | 80 |
| Mexico | 130 | Thailand | 73 |
GROWTH RATE
Population growth rate shows by what percentage the population has increased in the current year compared to some earlier period (most often with the previous year, called the base year).
Doubling time- the time during which the population doubles.
Table 8. Growth rate (in %) and doubling time (in years) of the population.
| Period | World | Africa | Latin America |
North America |
Asia | Europe | Oceania | Former USSR |
| 1965-1970 | 2,06 | 2,64 | 2,6 | 1,13 | 2,44 | 0,66 | 1,97 | 1,00 |
| 1980-1995 | 1,74 | 2,99 | 2,06 | 0,82 | 1,87 | 0,25 | 1,48 | 0,78 |
| 2020-2025 | 0,99 | 1,90 | 1,12 | 0,34 | 0,89 | 0,05 | 0,76 | 0,47 |
| Time Doublings |
71 | 27 | 38 | 63 | 50 | 253 | 63 | 99 |
Minimum doubling time: Brunei (11), Qatar (13), UAE (13).
Maximum doubling time: Bulgaria, Ireland, Hungary (1000 each),
Belgium, Poland, Falkland Islands, Puerto Rico (693 each).
As can be seen from the table, in different regions of the world the population today is growing unevenly: in some more slowly, in others faster, and in others very quickly. This is explained by the different nature of its reproduction.
POPULATION REPRODUCTION
Reproduction (natural movement) of the population- a set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensures the continuous renewal and change of human generations. Or: population reproduction is the process of generational change as a result of natural (increase) movement.
Key Demographics
Absolute indicators:
- natural increase- the difference between the number of births and deaths;
- mechanical gain- the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants.
Relative:
- birth rate- the ratio of the total number of births in a country per year to the total population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e., the number of births for every thousand inhabitants;
- mortality rate- the ratio of the total number of deaths in the country for the year to the population of the country, measured in thousands (i.e., the number of deaths per thousand inhabitants);
- rate of natural increase- the difference between the birth rate and death rate.
These ratios are measured in ppm (‰), but can be measured in percentage (%), i.e. In this case, calculations are carried out per 100 inhabitants.
"Formula" of reproduction- type of recording of relative demographic indicators: birth rate - death rate = natural increase rate.
Table 9. Demographic indicators of reproduction at the beginning of the 90s (in ‰).
Fertility, mortality, natural population growth are basically biological processes. But, nevertheless, the socio-economic conditions of people’s lives, as well as the relationships between them in society and in the family, have a decisive influence on them.
The mortality rate depends, first of all, on the material living conditions of people: nutrition, sanitary and hygienic working and living conditions, and the development of healthcare.
The birth rate also depends on the socio-economic structure of society and the living conditions of people. But this dependence is much more complex and controversial, causing a lot of controversy in science. Most scientists associate the decline in the birth rate with the growth of cities and the spread of an urban lifestyle, which leads to an increasing involvement of women in production and social activities, an increase in the length of education for children and a general increase in the “price of a child.” Developed pension provision also leads to a decrease in the birth rate, because the role of the child as a “walking pension” is reduced to nothing. On the contrary, the rural lifestyle contributes to high birth rates, because in rural areas, a child already from 9-10 years old has extra labor. In poor countries where the social sphere is poorly developed, the child is the main breadwinner for elderly parents. High birth rates are also typical for Muslim countries, where the tradition of large families is supported by religion.
Wars, especially world wars, have a very large negative impact on the reproduction of the population, which lead to enormous human losses, both as a result of direct military action and as a result of the spread of hunger and disease, and the severance of family ties.
An increase in mortality is caused by an increase in such unfavorable phenomena as crime, industrial injuries, natural and man-made disasters, accidents, and deterioration of environmental quality.
TYPES OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION
In the most simplified form, we can talk about two types of population reproduction.
The first type of population reproduction. Demographic crisis. The first type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic “winter”, modern or rational type of reproduction) is characterized by low rates of fertility, mortality and, accordingly, natural increase. It has become widespread primarily in economically developed countries, where the proportion of elderly and old people is constantly growing; this in itself reduces the birth rate and increases the death rate.
The decline in the birth rate in industrialized countries is usually associated with the spread of an urban lifestyle, in which children turn out to be a “burden” for parents. Industrial production and the service sector require highly qualified personnel. The consequence of this is the need for long-term study, lasting until the age of 21-23. The decision to have a second or third child is strongly influenced by a woman’s high involvement in the labor process, her desire to make a career and be financially independent.
But even among the countries of the first type of population reproduction, three subgroups can be distinguished.
Firstly, these are countries with an average annual natural population growth of 0.5-1% (or 5-10 people per 1000 inhabitants, or 5-10‰). In such countries, examples of which are the USA, Canada, and Australia, quite significant population growth is achieved.
To do this, it is necessary that approximately half of all families have two children, and half have three. Over time, two children “replace” their parents, and the third not only covers the loss from illnesses, accidents, etc. and “compensates” for the lack of offspring in the childless, but also ensures a sufficient overall increase.
Secondly, these are countries with “zero” or close to it natural growth. Such growth (for example, in Italy, Great Britain, Poland) no longer ensures expanded reproduction of the population, which usually stabilizes at the achieved level.
Table 10 . European countries with negative natural population growth in 2000
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Countries |
Natural growth, %o |
Countries |
Natural growth, %o |
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Spain |
Sweden |
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Switzerland |
Romania |
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Greece |
Hungary |
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Austria |
Estonia |
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Italy |
Latvia |
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Czech |
Belarus |
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Slovenia |
Russia |
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Lithuania |
Bulgaria |
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Germany |
Ukraine |
Thirdly, these are countries with negative natural increase, i.e. those where mortality exceeds birth rate. As a result, the number of their inhabitants not only does not grow, but even decreases. Demographers call this phenomenon depopulation(or demographic crisis).
It is most typical for Europe, where already one and a half dozen countries (Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Bulgaria, Germany, etc.) have negative natural growth. Recently, Russia has become one of these countries.
The transition from a large family, typical of old Russia, to a small family took place in our country during the existence of the Soviet Union. But in the 90s. First of all, with the emergence of a deep socio-economic crisis, a real “collapse” in natural population growth rates began.
In the 90s As a result of a sharp decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, the population of Russia was supposed to decrease by several million people. And only thanks to the massive influx of migrants from other CIS countries and the Baltic countries, which compensated for this decline by more than 1/3, the population decline was not so great. The birth rate in Russia (less than 9 people per 1000 inhabitants) and in the late 90s. remains one of the lowest in the world.
So, in general, the economically developed countries of the world (their average natural growth rate is 0.4‰) are characterized by the so-called “rational” or “modern” type of population reproduction, mainly corresponding to the urban image and high standard of living of their population. But this does not exclude the fact that a number of European countries are experiencing a demographic crisis, which negatively affects or may affect their development.
The second type of population reproduction. "Population explosion". The second type of population reproduction (synonyms: demographic “winter”) is characterized by high and very high birth rates and natural increase and relatively low death rates. It is typical primarily for developing countries.
Table 11. Developing countries with the highest natural population growth in 1995-2000
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Countries |
Natural growth,%O |
Countries |
Natural growth, %o |
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Yemen |
Benin |
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Somalia |
Ghana |
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Niger |
Liberia |
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Mali |
Mauritania |
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DR Congo |
Pakistan |
Assignments: 9 Tests: 1 |
Conclusion. Nizhny Novgorod is one of the largest cities in Central Russia. There are many ancient Russian cities located here. Ples – the artist I. Levitan painted his famous landscapes here. Right. Middle Volga. The river here is narrow, fast, and rapids. A national park has been created in the picturesque expanses of Samarskaya Luka. Above sea level. Motor ships roll on the waves. The Rybinsk Reservoir is the largest in European Russia. Reservoirs make it possible to irrigate large areas of agricultural land. Cities and villages are washed with clean cool water.
“Saki Lake” - The work was offered to a student of 9th grade. The lake stretches from west to east for 5 km, its greatest width is 3 km. Chemistry. Winter is moderately cold, with an average air temperature of about 0? C. Results of microcrystalline analysis of water and dirt. The collected material was formatted and prepared for presentation. The legend of Lake Saki. Calcium ion analysis result. The characteristic gypsum crystals are visible. Conclusion: no phosphates. Economic use of the lake. Stage III.
“Sights of Kaliningrad” - Star-shaped fortress. Friedland Gate Museum. House of Officers. Lava Sluice. Recreation center "Forest Fairy Tale". The work was done by Natalya Erofeeva, a 9th grade student. Upper Lake. Botanical Garden. The Curonian Spit is an object of world cultural and natural heritage of Russia. Bastion "Grolman". Curonian Spit - view from space. The former building of the Riflemen's Union. Sculpture “Fighting Bisons”. Monument to the soldiers of the engineering troops who died in World War I. City school.
“Rational use of natural resources” - Age structure of forests in the Jewish Autonomous Region. Ha; middle-aged – 523 thousand hectares; ripening - 279 thousand. Research methods: The subject of the study is the forest resources of the Jewish Autonomous Region, district, village. A large amount of wood waste accumulates in forest plots and is not recycled. Bald spots with stumps can be seen literally in the vicinity of our village. Analyze the received data. Cutting down valuable timber has its negative consequences. Forest lands occupy 1,628 thousand hectares, or 76% of the forest fund area.
“Lake Ladoga” - The lake is rich in freshwater fish, which go into rivers to spawn. Valaam Islands Valaam Monastery. Also known is the island of Konevets, on which the monastery is also located. In the Ladoga region, 256 species of birds belonging to 17 orders are regularly found. 35 rivers flow into Lake Ladoga, but only one originates - the Neva. More than 50 bird species have been recorded here during transit migration in spring and autumn. River Svir. Belongs to the Baltic Sea basin of the Atlantic Ocean.
“Desertification” - Slopes are plowed lengthwise to reduce water erosion. performed by 9b grade student Tanya Shubenkova. Factors of desertification. Desertification. Therefore, in a number of countries nature reserves have been created to protect semi-desert and desert zones. The desert is shaped not only by climate, but also by unreasonable human activity. In oil-producing countries, oil is often splashed on loose, mobile soils. Today, the problem of protecting underground aquifers is acute. Experts estimate that more than 6,000,000 hectares of land become deserted every year.
The population is determined in the form of a periodic census or current census. Each species has its own individual characteristics, the most important being the choice of moment and the category of the population taken into account.
Instructions
The population in all territories is constantly changing. This happens due to death, birth, migration, so a certain period of time is determined in advance for the registration in order to most accurately reflect the demographic situation.
International accounting is usually carried out at the middle of the period, for example, at the middle of the calendar year. Then the average of the recorded population at the end and beginning of the current year is calculated.
In the Russian Federation, population registration is carried out at the end of the reporting year. The results are carried over to the beginning of next year. Census days are determined by determining the lowest daily and annual mobility of the population, which is recorded by statistics.
When using different methods, the size of the enumerated population can vary significantly, so registration and census can be carried out strictly at the specified time.
In accordance with state accounting data, three main categories of the population can be distinguished - permanent, legal, and cash. The permanent population is people who are in the region at the time of the census; the actual legal address of their permanent place of residence is not taken into account. The legal population is the persons registered at the time of the census in a given region. The current population includes persons permanently or temporarily residing in the region.
To most accurately reflect the demographic situation, it is important to take into account the data of the actual population. The all-Russian population census takes into account the same parameters.
Accordingly, the demographic size of the population that is most important to know is determined based on the number of actual persons counted in the census. Legal address and place of permanent residence are not taken into account, as they are not important.
Density population– an important characteristic that determines the degree of population of a given territory. This statistical indicator is used in management and allows planning its development. By density population one can judge how comfortable a given territory is for human habitation. It is measured by the number of permanent residents per unit of area, which is usually taken to be 1 square kilometer.
Instructions
To determine density population any territory, you can use statistical data that is publicly available. Make queries in well-known Internet search engines. If population the territory you are interested in is not directly indicated, then calculate it yourself by dividing the total number population who lives within its borders, the area of this territory in square kilometers.
In the event that the desired territory is not so significant, and information about its area and quantity population are not available on the Internet, you can contact your local statistics department, which is federally subordinate, with a request. According to Article 5 and Article 29 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, citizens of the country have the right to receive such information; it does not relate to information constituting a state secret. In a letter addressed to the head of the statistical office for your area, ask for information about the area of the territory you are interested in and the number of people who are registered as living in it.
You can also send such requests to the administration of localities or city districts. Naturally, information on the number of residents will be provided to you as of the date of the last census population. Information about the area of a territory, as a rule, changes very rarely. This can only happen if a new territorial-administrative unit is formed and the boundaries of its neighboring territories are changed.
When calculating density population From the total area of this territory, the areas of territories unsuitable for habitation and large hydrographic objects - lakes, bays, reservoirs, seas - should be excluded.
When calculating the areas of large territories in which there are extensive urbanized populated areas and those located in rural areas, keep in mind that their population density can vary several times and even tens of times. In this case the density population is defined as the average of these values.
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