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This situation can happen to any of us, the wonderful course of affairs can suddenly come to an impenetrable dead end, giving rise to your doubts, frustration and longing. When you are in a crisis, whether it is related to your career, sports, training or personal life, it is in any case unpleasant. In fact, you can feel lost and have difficulty motivating yourself to do anything other than the feeling of stagnation. However, your very sense of discomfort and dissatisfaction is telling you that it is time to rethink your course of action and find another path to a better future.

A big part of getting out of a crisis is to listen to yourself and follow your inner voice (assuming you believe it). However, this article will help you regain your strength and allow you to set new goals for yourself with its recommendations.

Steps

Relax. If you are upset and overstressed, this will only aggravate your condition and may even perpetuate the feeling of being in a crisis. You cannot change bad habits and daily routines by grumbling and blaming the whole world. Start by relaxing to give yourself a break from self-critical thoughts and a bad tendency to focus on things that don't really matter. Relaxation involves stopping thinking about disturbing thoughts in your free time, while exercising, walking in nature or where you like to spend time, sitting in a cafe and contemplating the world around you, during yoga or Pilates, meditation, during a spa - procedures in the salon, meetings with friends, communication with pets, visits to an art gallery or museum, weekend trips, etc.

Create a certain distance between yourself and those things that create a sense of crisis in you. When you feel like everything in your life is hopelessly stalling and things aren't going the way they should, it's good to put things into perspective. In William Bridges Change: understanding the meaning of change in life (Transitions: Making Sense of Life's Changes) it is recommended to move away from everything by leaving home and giving yourself time to think without any distractions (TV, computer and even books); this is a great way to recharge and analyze your own feelings. In the absence of familiar surroundings and surroundings, you will be left to simply reflect on your feelings, whatever they may be. It doesn't take much time, just a day or two away from everything can do you good, provided they are restorative for you, like a house in the woods or by the sea, a hike in the forest or in the countryside and anything else that can take you away from your daily routine and allow you to "just be yourself".

Think about the things that are likely to bring you into a crisis. Too many events in your life can not only scatter your focus, but also deprive you of the ability to move on, leading you to want to collapse from exhaustion or confusion. Often, our attempts to be everywhere and do everything contain the seeds of our dissatisfaction, especially if what stimulates us works for others rather than for our inner (spiritual) and collective sense of self. Look at your life and ask yourself a series of questions:

• Am I trying to do too much?
• Am I constantly competing with other people? Am I comparing myself to others out of jealousy or superiority?
• Do I give myself to others or am I always too busy for that? Do I have time for voluntary activity?
• Do I still have the values ​​that matter to me, or have they been replaced by the values ​​of the place where I work or the people I spend most of my time with?
• Have I forgotten my dreams? Am I trapped in a dream that I've outgrown?
• Am I in good health, or have I let myself down? If so, why?

1. Find inspiration. Part of the crisis is the loss of meaning in what you are doing, or the loss of a sense of direction in your movement. Every person has a cherished dream inside, for which you can try your best. However, there are times when failure to do something, wrong decisions and change of circumstances can be frustrating. Actively look for a source of restoration of the inner fuse through inspiration from the successes of other people, from their ideas and words. For example:

   • Read the blogs of people you admire and learn from.
   • Talk to people in everyday life who do things that impress you and inspire you. Ask them about how they got to their current position.
   • Read books about leaders, heroes, activists, and creative people who have done amazing things in your line of work or life in general. It doesn't have to be famous people, there are many simple successful people, leaders and heroes whose wise words can give you strength and inspiration.
   • Focus on other people's success stories and stop reading the news. They always carry negativity, and negativity cannot cheer you up!

2. Set a goal that means something to you, and then work it to perfection. After answering the question why you are in a crisis state, you should have a better understanding of what overworks you, what you neglect, what you exaggerate. Break down what you are trying to achieve or do and decide on simpler and more specific goals, and even better - with one goal that you want to achieve at the moment. Everything else is peripheral and should be put aside if it doesn't help you achieve your one and only goal.

   • Write down your goal in a notebook and on self-adhesive pieces of paper that you can stick where you will constantly see them and remember the goal. From now on, realize your goal by constantly seeing it in front of you and reminding yourself of it.
   • Read as much as you can about ways to establish, improve, and achieve a goal. As well as being inspired by other people's stories of defining your purpose, other people's experiences with goal setting will help build your enthusiasm and serve as a great reminder that each person should work towards their goal, not just leave things as they are forever. changes.

3. Make yourself accountable for achieving your goal. Share your goal with others. The more people who know your goal, the more likely you are to stick with it. When other people are aware, they can help you more clearly define and visualize your goal. You can even make a public announcement on a network like Facebook, Twitter, etc. to "commit yourself" to do something if you don't reach your goal, like donate money to a charity.

   If your crisis is about a career, consider another calling. There is always an opportunity to try yourself in another area to see if it is better for you. It can be the perfect transition from a career that has already served you, which has lost its usefulness by the current moment, to something new, amazing with an “unclouded beginner's eye”, which gives rise to your creativity and unleashes the instincts of knowledge.

   • You can search for new options for your calling on the Internet through job sites.
   • Another way to test a new job is to look for a part-time job (in addition to the existing job) on a volunteer basis in a new place for 1-3 months. Be open, explain what you are trying to decide; you will be surprised how many employers will be happy to meet your enthusiasm, and you may subsequently have a new job.

4. Bring joy back into your life. If you have been working or studying all the time without entertainment, then your life has become quite boring in places. However, fun and excitement are important to your life. Do you disdain non-work related things such as doing nothing, meeting friends, reading on your own and not out of obligation, hugging, cheering friends to get them out of their sadness, going to the movies , shows, theme parks, for trips, travel, for updating the design of your interior, for kite launches. If not, then this list of ideas should help you, think like a child about entertainment, look for them and immerse yourself in them.

5. Take care of your health. If you've missed your form, malnourished, and gained weight, the crisis will simply highlight the fact that you're not in very good health. The way out of a crisis can often be accomplished by focusing on improving nutrition and incorporating exercise into your daily schedule, which is not only enjoyable, but also gives you space to think, stretch, and push yourself. Group activities or outdoor activities in front of other people, in addition to improving physical fitness, are a great way to experience the collective spirit. If you don't know where to start, it's a good idea to consult a doctor or a nutritionist, there are also many books on exercise, diet, nutrition, so the nearest library or bookstore will definitely have a couple of books that are suitable for you.

   • This article does not talk about what and how to eat, how to exercise, but everyone should understand that eating healthy whole foods and regular physical activity improves mood, shape and well-being. Each of these benefits taken separately is already able to pull you out of the crisis.

6. Enlist friends and family members to help you on the path to change. It's about telling everyone and everything about your goal, finding those people who will go through fire and water with you, people who will give you directions and guide you, even those people who will open new doors for you. This is not the time to be shy. Dust off your social skills and dive into it. Ask people a lot of questions about how they changed their lives, how they progressed, borrow ideas to help you change your life and progress on the path to the next stage.

   • Meet with your support team often. Relying on infrequent e-mails and meeting once a year at a bar would be of little use. Your support team should be made up of people you see regularly and can easily reach out to when you need advice and a helping hand. Of course, you should not become a burden on people, but choose those whose own resilience is high, who can take the time to help you get out of the crisis.
   • Online communities and forums can be a huge help. There are communities in almost every field that share advice, ideas, experiences, and even stories of ups and downs, which can give you both a boost of energy and the necessary accountability to move forward.
   • Combine sources of support: no one can stop you from having support, both online and in real life! This can be especially helpful if you tend to experience bouts of anxiety in the morning. Instead of waking up someone at home, you can simply go online at any time to get advice or just chat, depending on what you need.

7. Expect ups and downs on your way out of the crisis. Even with all the benevolence of the world, the greatest support, and a clear sense of purpose, you will have days of doubt and inner distress. For example, if you are in a crisis because you hate your job, make it your goal to find a new job where you can showcase your talents and where you won't be underestimated. You told your partner, best real friends and online associates who are also looking for work about this. You have read inspiring books about career changes and the challenges involved, as well as the potential benefits. You are inspired. But then the day comes when your current boss is especially negative towards you, customers are unhappy with you, and you also lose an important flash drive with working documents. It is very easy to fall back into a crisis and start thinking that nothing will ever change with such a dam of negativity in front of you. However, you should note to yourself that negative events are temporary, it is very likely that you see them in a worse light than they really are, and provided that you do not lose sight of your goal, they will end very soon. Patience is your ally, as Arnold Glasow said, "Chickens come from incubating the egg, not cracking it." Accept that it's okay to have doubts along the way, but it's important to stay on track and you'll get there. In the meantime, practice being grateful for the good things in your daily life; the vision of the goal is only a constituent element, your path itself should also be appreciated, it helps you learn more about yourself and other people.

   • If you have no doubts about anything, you are probably overconfident, which is the opposite slippery slope. Simply setting a goal and believing in it does not mean that it will be achieved without any effort. Use negative reminders as an incentive to get out of the crisis, instead of sliding back to the current state of affairs.
   • Like the tide, your motivation will return. Think of your path as an ebb and flow of motivation, with motivation constantly returning to solid ground and periodically falling off until you finally reach your goal.

8. Reward yourself as you go through the key milestones on the path to your goal. Even one single goal can be broken down into small steps, after which you should encourage your perseverance. For example, let's say you want to run marathons, but currently you can barely make it to the store around the corner. You set a plan and work on it. Running around the corner without a break can be your first step, after which you can reward yourself with a walk on the beach or a low-calorie ice cream, or watching your favorite movie or music track, etc. It is better to use small, but meaningful rewards. The last encouragement is the very achievement of the goal and the complete disappearance of the feeling of crisis.

   • Stay focused on the end result when you start to think your crisis will never end. Always keep your goal in mind and remind yourself that everything that is happening now is for the benefit of achieving your goal.
   • Dedicate yourself to culture. Try to play music, draw, compose, show any creative activity that can replenish significant achievements in your life. Or make a new habit of visiting museums and free concerts. In any case, being attracted to culture because of its complexity and creativity can help you think about the causes of the crisis without focusing directly on them.
   • Gradual change is a great way to overcome the overwhelm of the big changes needed to get out of a crisis. For example, if you want to improve your skills in baseball, start by practicing with a few throws and spins, gradually increase your practice time from five minutes to ten, then up to 15, 20 and 30, until you can significantly improve your game.
   • Try to think positive.
   • Keep reading inspiring books, blogs, websites, poems, novels, excerpts, etc. They serve to fuel your belief in your ability to get out of the crisis and achieve your set goal. Remember that others have done it, so you can too.

   Warnings

   • Most of the solutions suggested in this article require certain resources: holidays, weekends, solitude, proper nutrition, reliance on support - all this takes time and some money. If you are in a crisis due to external factors such as financial problems or unemployment that are weighing you down, don't get further depressed after reading this article. Instead, look for things that you can do for free, you can get help for your immediate situation. A prolonged crisis, such as long-term unemployment, creates the problem of diminishing earnings even from a once good job. Find ways to reward yourself for trying to find a way out of a situation, whether it be reading a library book for an hour or attending a free concert. Plan those rewards around the things that really give you pleasure. Try to do at least one thing a day that deserves a little encouragement.
   • If you're feeling blue for more than two weeks, see your doctor. You may be suffering from something more than just a sense of crisis, and you need to describe your feelings to someone who can help you medically or professionally.
   • Do you feel like giving up all your efforts to get out of the crisis? In this case, email, call or text your support team to let them know. For example, if you are going to stop your diet and eat a whole chocolate cake, run to your phone, computer and first thing contact support friends, ask for help! This action itself will already distract you, and the support provided to you will go at the price of gold.
   • It's easy to think negatively. Don't take the easy path, keep committing yourself to moving in positive thoughts until they fill your mind and throw out all the negativity. The negative inner voice is the source of the crisis, and eradicating it is absolutely always the key to the exit. Remind yourself: "I can do it!"

I got some kind of education, started working somewhere and hung out for years. You are still young, but not as much as you would like. The work does not please, personal life is average and there are no prospects for the future. They don’t hire good big companies, there are no cool connections, you can’t get a job as a top manager. Acquaintances buy cars, apartments, occupy leadership positions, get married, have children. And you're all wrong. There are no prospects, no future, and depression drags you into the abyss of alcohol, panic and despair.

This is the story of many people. Someone simply indulges in dreams, others become an inveterate drunkard, others fight all their lives against an invisible ceiling. What to do and how to change life for the better if you find yourself in a deep crisis?

How do people get out of a life crisis?

Only those who want it themselves become losers, alcoholics and homeless people.

Let's start with the fact that there are no universal tips. No one will tell you to go there, do this and do that. But you can change everything if you start to act.

One of my friends was from a poor and not at all prosperous family. She had a humanitarian education, but a great faith in herself. She failed job interviews dozens of times. But she did not hang her nose and continued to be persistent. She continued to study, studied at home around the clock, additionally went to courses and took on various part-time jobs. Only a year and a half later, she was able to get the job of her dreams. She got what she wanted.

My classmate after studying returned to the periphery home. He got married, got an average position and lived without grieve. But a few years later he divorced, and at work they began to pay very little. Depression, alcohol and crisis in life. But one tourist trip to St. Petersburg changed everything. A classmate packed up and moved to St. Petersburg with one bag. There he found himself a new job and a new wife. But for this, in the new city, he had to work very hard for three years.

Another comrade sat on the neck of his parents until the girl left him. This served as a good motivation for change. The guy sat down for programming and a year later he was able to get his first job. Ten years later, that loser and he now are completely different people.

How to get out of the crisis in life?

How to get out of the impasse and difficult crisis in life? You need to understand that the crisis begins in the head and ends there. If you are in a complete ass, but it's time to start acting.

1. If you don't know what you want, then you won't achieve anything. Set yourself specific goals.
2. Never feel sorry for yourself. Stop being a victim.
3. Don't shift the blame to your parents, friends, government, blat and others.

4. Your life depends only on you. There will be no miracle, and no one will save. Only myself.
5. Awaken your fear. Do you want to be at the same point at 50 as you are now?
6. Study, educate yourself, get new knowledge to the maximum.
7. Fight and knock on all doors. Try, try and try again.
8. If you find yourself in a hole, you need, first of all, to stop digging.
9. Remove from life everything that bothers you: bad habits, weaknesses, toxic people.
10. Age is a number. You have time for all your dreams.
11. Nobody owes you anything. None.
12. Don't wait for the right opportunity, but create it. The best day for change is today.
13. Work on your mistakes and learn from them.

14. It makes no sense to wait for the weather from the sea, and water does not flow under a lying stone.
15. Don't compare yourself to others, but set and achieve your own goals.
16. Make time for rest, good sleep, healthy eating and sports.
17. Kick yourself every day for motivation and development.
18. Look for like-minded people and those who think alike.
19. Stop doing things that do not bring the desired result.

20. No prospects in your hometown? Leave for another city, capital or another country.
21. Always make short-term and long-term plans tied to time.
22. Believe in yourself and become more confident. Stop spreading snot.
23. Get started. You will succeed.

Toilet paper, pasta, canned food, soap are just some of the items that are rapidly disappearing from supermarket shelves in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak. Let's call a spade a spade: it's not buying out of necessity, but buying out of panic. And although this is a completely understandable reaction of people to an uncertain situation, it does not affect the lives of others in the best way.

The level of self-esteem in one way or another affects the actions of a person. A person constantly underestimates his capabilities, as a result, “life prizes” go to others. If your self-esteem is getting lower and lower, then the 20 tips in this article will help you. By starting to apply them in your life, you can increase your self-esteem and become a confident person.

Many will agree that, from time to time, they are overwhelmed by unwanted thoughts that cannot be rid of. They are so strong that even doing interesting things does not help at all. This is accompanied by negative emotions that add to the painful sensations. Sometimes it seems that it is not possible to defeat such thoughts, but if you consider the problem from different points of view, you can find the right solution.

We kill our happiness with our own hands. The negative that we carry in ourselves towards others, destructive thoughts, envy, anger, resentment - this list is endless. Review your life, let go of unpleasant memories, get rid of people, activities and things that poison the mind. Be good and positive. Do something nice, something that you have long dreamed of.

A person's life changes with age, desires and priorities change. This is a completely normal process, although each of us is individual. If you want to make the most of your life after 30, the following 9 tips will help you.

The fight against complexes is often very difficult due to lack of motivation. And in order to achieve the maximum effect in the fight against complexes, it is necessary to develop a tactic for finding the necessary motivation and further actions. It is on such joint work that the principle of working on oneself is built.

Happiness - no matter what anyone says, the goal of life of every person. But is it so difficult to achieve this goal? People strive to become happy, but they neglect simple joys, which together can give this feeling. Here are some ways to help you feel happier.

Do you want to become a healthy person? If you follow the advice given in this article, then you can say with full confidence that you will become healthier than you were before. At first glance, they seem simple, but start doing them and you will be amazed at the real changes in your health and condition.

Resentment is not an incorrigible, pathological character trait, it can and should be corrected. Resentment is a person's reaction to a discrepancy with his expectations. It can be anything: a word, an act, or a sharp glance. Frequent grievances lead to bodily illnesses, psychological problems and the inability to build harmonious relationships with others. Do you want to stop being offended and learn to understand your grievances? Then let's look at how this can be done.

In the life of every person, there come moments when you have to reconsider your views on life, re-set priorities for yourself and test your beliefs for strength. The list of such situations can be very long and varied, they are united by a common name - a personality crisis.

Many people are afraid of personal crises: the existence of a crisis means the presence of uncertainty, uncertainty, lack of “ground under their feet”, and this plunges a person into a state of confusion. During a crisis, a person faces a number of questions, the answer to which determines his future life path.

It is clear why it is so difficult to survive the crisis: you have to show courage and endurance, the ability to learn lessons from different life situations and adjust your plans for the future. However, one should not perceive a personal crisis as an exclusively negative phenomenon, because a crisis can also be perceived as a signal that it is time to change something in our lives. If you correctly determine the direction of change and the ultimate goal, there is a great opportunity to change your life for the better. In this regard, a personal crisis is similar to a crossroads: a certain segment of the path has already been passed, the possibilities of the path that you had to go before have exhausted themselves, and a person faces a choice in which direction to go now, a choice that determines the future fate of the traveler.

The crisis is almost always associated with the experience of acute negative feelings. Therefore, the first intuitive desire of a person in this situation will be the desire to get rid of these negative experiences as soon as possible, to shake them off like splashes of water. However, it is very important to start by correctly identifying your feelings and determining what exactly caused the emergence of a personality crisis. After identifying the causes of the crisis, a person has a chance to determine a plan for his further actions, turn a difficult situation to his advantage and emerge victorious from the crisis. What else can be done to successfully survive the crisis? The following tips can help with this:

• Allow yourself to survive the crisis, be alone with yourself, your feelings and thoughts

A crisis is always perceived as a nuisance, which is best to get rid of as soon as possible. That is why many people do not fully experience the crisis: most negative experiences are "thrown overboard" consciousness or denied.

In order to turn a difficult situation to your advantage and turn a crisis into an experience, you need, first of all, awareness. It is very important to be aware of the circumstances that preceded and contributed to the crisis and to be aware of your own feelings associated with the crisis situation. By realizing the problem, you have a chance to fix it, changing your life for the better.

• Take your time and give honest answers to questions that arise

Another type of misbehavior in a crisis is to try to solve the problem as soon as possible without even bothering to look deep inside yourself and understand what you really want.

What is vital to give to yourself during a crisis is time. Give yourself a little time until the first waves of strong emotional experiences subside, and in one moment you will ask yourself fateful questions: what to do next? What do I want from this life? Where should I go? If you give yourself the opportunity to reflect on these questions and try to give yourself absolutely honest answers to them, then the crisis can turn into the beginning of a new life stage.

• Way out of the crisis: elaboration of goals and objectives for the future

Let's say you survived the emotional storm that followed the onset of the crisis, and were able to determine for yourself the general direction of your future life path - you had intentions regarding the construction of your own life. However, intentions alone are not enough, because life does not tolerate uncertainty. Therefore, the next step, allowing you to successfully survive the crisis, is a detailed study of goals and objectives for the future, building a life plan for yourself.

First you need to define global goals - what you want to get out of life. However, global goals can be intimidating in their scope, so they should be broken down into smaller life tasks - it will be much easier to start moving towards the final goal and celebrate your progress on the way to it.

• Overcoming the crisis: do not forget to celebrate your successes

Achieving the ultimate goal may take more than one year, or even more than one decade. Sometimes the movement towards the goal stretches for a lifetime, or even becomes life itself. Therefore, on the way to a distant goal, small victories can go unnoticed or be discounted.

In order not to be emotionally "blown away" on the way to the goal, you need to learn to celebrate your achievements, both large and small. Firstly, it will stimulate for further achievements, and secondly, it will help develop the ability to pay attention to the positive aspects of the situation, to see the positive in this life. By celebrating our successes, we thank ourselves for our efforts and help ourselves gather strength before reaching further heights.

• Learn to positively assess difficult situations

One of the pitfalls of crisis situations that can put you out of action for a long time is discouragement. Falling into despondency, a person deprives himself of the opportunity to get out of a difficult situation, he seems to bind himself hand and foot with his negative emotions and makes it impossible to move forward.

Instead of indulging in your rueful reflections, it is better to try to positively rethink the situation. Yes, such action is not always easy, sometimes it is completely impossible, but in most situations, positive rethinking is the right strategy in a difficult situation. It is difficult situations that can become a source for further personal growth, if only you learn to find pluses always and everywhere.

• Give vent to your feelings and find a source of support

From childhood, we are instilled with the habit of restraining our emotions and not putting problems on display in the social environment. You have to be restrained. You can not "load" others with your problems. But does such a strategy have any positive results? Does it help to overcome a crisis situation, to cope with life's difficulties?

In fact, everything is completely different: in order to successfully survive the crisis, you need to learn how to give vent to your emotions, and, if necessary, use the social support of friends and inner circle. If you hold back all emotions in yourself, there is a possibility of an “emotional explosion” at the most inopportune moment. And so - you have the opportunity to independently choose the time and method of emotional discharge (physical activity, creativity or the classic "speak out").

In addition, it is better to learn not to be shy to seek help from loved ones in order to get support in difficult situations. The crisis drains our strength and there is nothing shameful in the natural desire to find support and support from friends and loved ones. For this, various kinds of social relations exist so that we can help our neighbor in a difficult situation and that someone is next to us in similar conditions, helping to overcome life's problems and crisis stages of our life.

It has become clear that the liberal model a la russe is not working, that the West is determined to strangle us, and that therefore the economic model must be changed quickly and profoundly. It is necessary to implement strategies that give a limited but quick result, allowing you to jump out of the noose of the West and giving time for a respite. Most of our problems are not of a macro or even microeconomic nature, but of an institutional nature, and changing institutions cannot be a quick thing - but what can be done. Another restrictive framework is political: a sharp deterioration in the well-being of citizens should not be allowed, and if in some aspects this is inevitable, then in others there must be a clearly noticeable improvement.

Currency regulation

The very first thing that needs to be done is to immediately and simultaneously introduce soft currency regulation. What does this mean? All entities, both legal entities and individual entrepreneurs, and just private individuals are deprived of the right to have foreign currency accounts, as well as to purchase cash currency. 100% of exporters' foreign exchange earnings must be sold on the market within a short time (details will be determined by the Central Bank), during which it is blocked and cannot be used. Bank loans to customers and other banks in foreign currency are prohibited, including foreign ones. All subjects of the economy, including banks, are prohibited from earning income through currency speculation. Any transactions in foreign currency are prohibited. Retail price tags and entries in contracts in foreign currency, conventional units, as well as in rubles with indexation at the exchange rate are prohibited. The import of cash currency into the country is prohibited, including for foreigners, if someone is lucky, sells it here, right at the airport / train station or at the crossing point. The export of cash currency, as well as its transfers through Western Union and similar companies, is also prohibited. The sale of currency by private individuals is prohibited, but the violator should be punished not with a prison, but with a fine (in the case of migrants, also with deportation) - this process should not be criminalized and corrupted.

All this without any exceptions, that is, as now excise taxes, for which, I remind you, the institution of benefits is not provided in principle. Borrowing abroad is also prohibited, but there may be exceptions for countries, but not for borrowers (that is, you can be allowed to borrow, for example, in China, but only, for example, Gazprom cannot be allowed to borrow abroad). The situation is almost the same with investments abroad. This ban should also not be absolute, but not only for countries, but also for companies - it may well be in the interests of the state that someone like Gazprom or Rosneft invest in one of the European countries, this may be part of important behind-the-scenes political agreement. And about the rest, there is no need to be sad that they will not be allowed to invest in the West - and not only because there will be no capital flight, but also because our pale-faced brothers will still take everything with a high probability.

On the other hand, if a company or an entrepreneur needs to buy something abroad, pay for a service, or pay interest or the body on a loan previously taken abroad, they freely acquire currency on the market for this, without asking anyone for permission (Central Bank regulate the issue of payments on foreign currency loans within the country). But the mode of the account on which it settles is transit, after a short time, if it is not paid from there, it is forcibly sold by the Central Bank, and the account holder is fined in proportion to the amount of currency - the first time is not burdensome, then seriously. The company is liable, including criminal, for the misuse of this currency compared to the declared one, and not only officials, but also the final beneficiaries - if the company has not disclosed the final beneficiaries, it is simply not allowed by law to acquire the currency.

The most natural way to control this is to introduce licensing of import operations and not give licenses without it, in the USA they would absolutely do just that. However, I would not introduce this in our country - and so the regulation is over the roof, but would simply instruct Financial Monitoring to keep vigil. They work seriously, large leaks will definitely prevent. Further, if a citizen travels abroad - no problem, go, your ruble credit card will pay for everything, even cash withdrawals from local ATMs (within a reasonable limit, of course). In general, both for companies and for people: pay in foreign currency for anything abroad or for import - please, save in foreign currency - you will manage.

A separate issue is the purchase of foreign currency for the repatriation of profits by foreign investors. For direct investors who have already made capital investments in the construction / re-equipment of real sector facilities, it is necessary to conduct a legal analysis - whether the ban on the purchase of foreign currency for repatriation will be the basis for them to win a claim in court for compensation for damage due to changes in the rules of the game. And it’s not a fact that it’s worth so much to discourage direct investors, although basically this, of course, is assembly production. The best way seems to me to be the adoption of a document, according to which the repatriation of profits in foreign currency (more precisely, not it, but the acquisition of foreign currency for this) for such enterprises, directly according to the attached list, is temporarily frozen for the period of economic sanctions by the respective countries. As France says about the transfer of the Mistrals, we are not against it, but conditions have not yet been formed. That is, sanctions will be lifted - you will get the right to repatriate profits and, accordingly, buy currency for this, including for the past period. By the way, I would have done the same with corporate debts to foreign creditors - I would have frozen them until the "addition of conditions."

And in order not to collapse the rate with one-time large purchases, when conditions develop, sell it to them for this not on the market, but at the market rate through the government’s agent bank, which is VEB, to which the Central Bank will sell it. The only thing for such enterprises is to be very careful that they do not hide profits in royalties from the parent company and / or the purchase of components or services from it at obviously inflated prices. This must be monitored even without the introduction of currency regulation, and this is still necessary, because in addition to the leakage of currency (which is now allowed), the taxable base is also illegally falling. There is Financial Monitoring for this, which, judging by a number of indirect signs, works quite normally, but is clearly underloaded with serious government tasks. However, it should be remembered that as soon as this will be tied to the lifting of sanctions, it is clear that here we are talking about enterprises from Western countries, well, from offshore companies, although there the beneficiaries are not so much Western as ours - well, the decision to deoffshorize has already been taken. And Chinese, for example, enterprises should not suffer in any way, as well as enterprises from other BRICS countries. Although over time, not really in a hurry, it will be necessary to work out a new sound procedure for the mutual repatriation of profits with these countries: why should an Indian enterprise in Russia repatriate profits in US dollars if the Russian currency is the ruble, and the Indian one is the rupee?

But everything that is stated in the previous paragraph applies only to direct investors in the real sector. All portfolio foreign investors, all kinds of funds, the purchase of foreign currency should be prohibited. That is, if you want to enter the Russian market - enter, buy rubles (because inside Russia transactions are not possible in rubles), earn, for example, on shares or bonds (but not on currency and currency instruments!), but only if you want to save in rubles. I would generally close Russia to them, there is zero benefit from them, and there is a lot of harm, but this requires a more radical revision of the legislation, and this is the time. For current purposes, the above is sufficient. As for funds from non-Western countries, this issue needs to be worked out, but this will not be a big problem - their volumes are small.

Many people ask the question: why do you call all this soft regulation? Well, I'm using common terminology here. Tight currency regulation is a regime similar to the late USSR: with a state monopoly of foreign trade, multiple exchange rates, complete non-convertibility of the national currency, and so on. And what I have described here, with the freedom of foreign economic activity, with a limited but free foreign exchange market, with the internal convertibility of the national currency, is soft.

In the United States, the terms “control over the movement of goods” (meaning in foreign trade) are still used for hard and “control over the movement of capital” for soft.

Why don't I propose strict currency regulation, like many of our sensible economists, or rather, very few survivors of the total liberal purge? I do not at all consider it fundamentally unacceptable, but I do not see the professional quality and honesty of the state apparatus that can carry it out: the volume of state work and the possibility of abuses are very high. And with soft - no, all commercial decisions are made by business entities.

Moreover, it is generally very easy to administer, the Central Bank has experience in all its elements, it takes a minimum of time to prepare and build up (I estimate it at two months). In addition, I am generally a supporter of the minimum necessary impact. Where it is possible without general anesthesia - it is better to do with local ones, where it is possible without surgery at all - it is better to do with pills. The introduction of strict currency regulation is still akin to amputation. And soft are tablets.

What do companies and people lose from the introduction of this? Yes, nothing, in essence: they can import goods and services, they can go abroad and buy there. Permission to ask for all this, as they should not, and will not. There is only a purely psychological aspect, like 15-20 years ago, when they began to introduce payroll cards: we are forced, many complained. What about you? Well, what if I need cash? Well, go ahead and take a picture. Yes, but somehow... As a result, everyone is used to it, none of those who receive a salary to the account (and this is half of the workers in the country) believe that they have bent and infringed, and no one runs to withdraw all the money on the day of pay.

It will be the same with currency regulation. Companies can say something a little more rational: we don't know what the market rate will be in six months, there are exchange rate risks. Well, buy a hedge, as any importer does in the USA, for example from Europe. In addition, the ruble exchange rate will go up strongly, this is clearly calculated. Because the demand for the currency will fall (some of the current transactions will be prohibited or impossible), and the supply will increase (exporters and buyers of the currency will not be able to accumulate it in their accounts). True, the total amount of foreign currency coming into the country and sold is still falling due to falling oil prices, and the ruble at these oil prices will not grow to 30, as before, but to 40–42, which naturally reduces both imports and, as consequence, the purchase of currency. As long as the current bastard structure of the economy, with its overdependence on oil, persists, the ruble will inevitably fall when oil prices fall. No amount of currency regulation can prevent this - it will only ensure that its fall is not inadequate and that there is no panic that would otherwise be used to further its collapse.

And what will we win? The ruble will stabilize and begin to grow. Banks will start spending all their money on lending, because the alternative freebie in the form of currency speculation will end, but you need to earn money on something. The outflow of capital will stop, reserves will stop falling. In fact, they will start to grow, even at low oil prices, because as a result of the introduction of the above described, the ruble will begin to strengthen too quickly, which is not very beneficial for us now, and the way to prevent this is the purchase of currency by the Central Bank. But all this is a free market - and what is happening to us in recent months is not the result of a market element at all, but a targeted attack on us. Moreover, not even speculative, with the aim of making money, as Soros once did for a pound, but a purely political attack by our enemies, the United States and its henchmen (we have no other enemies in the world) with the aim of destroying us.

So, the introduction of currency regulation dramatically limits their ability to attack our financial system. No, they can still collapse oil prices, and this makes us feel bad - but this is not good for them either. Because, firstly, the Saudis and their colleagues themselves groan at such prices, they won’t stand them for long, their budget, even adjusted for a $40 billion deficit, is drawn up at $80/barrel, and not at $14, as in 1986. And second, because, unlike in 1986, the US is now the world's largest oil producer, larger than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. Moreover, oil is expensive there. And to think that the American authorities can spit on the interests of their own oil industry and its lobby is the height of naivety. Yes, President Obama happily declares that low oil prices are beneficial to the United States, because the population pays less for gasoline, but I have no doubt that everything will be explained to him soon. Manufacturers of the same gasoline will explain. That is, oil prices are good as a short-term artillery preparation, and the attack itself, according to their strategy, is carried out by the financial sector. And the above is a fortification that this attack cannot overcome. That is why their fifth column in our country breaks into such a heart-rending howl at the words about currency regulation. So to the question, how long should it be introduced, I would answer: forever.

But the main thing is not in this, but in what will be discussed further.

Credit issue

If I am asked to name one of the biggest problems of the Russian economy, I will not hesitate to name not administrative arbitrariness and corruption, not the lack of an adequate legal system, not the weakness of the elite that arose on the robbery of the state, but the lack of money in the economy, especially medium and long ones. What difference does it make how the organs work if there is no blood. It has always been believed that for adequate functioning, the monetization ratio should be 80-120% of GDP, but this is long outdated - in Europe it really is about 110%, but in China it is almost 200%, and in the USA under 300% (officially 60%, but they just have a different ratio of different aggregates, when recalculated with the same approaches, it turns out about 300). In Russia - between 40 and 50%.

It would seem that comments are unnecessary, but they are still needed. The lack of money is expressed in Russia primarily not in an increase in the share of barter in the economy, as it should be according to the classical theory, but in a lack of credit. This shortage is expressed both in prohibitive interest rates on it, and in the very great difficulty in obtaining credit for all entrepreneurs and companies, except for the largest ones, even at these rates. You can say as much as you like that the interest rate is formed in a competitive market and reflects the fact that there are few good borrowers and there is no one to lend, but there are sellers' markets, and there are buyers. So, our market for bank loans is a pronounced seller's market, which allows banks to take advantage of borrowers, and not run after them. When “there are many of you, and I am alone,” then, of course, why give it to anyone except Gazprom.

It is only important to understand that in our country this is a consequence not of a small number of banks, but of a lack of money. Moreover, the lack of credit leads to the lack of business development, and to the limitation of demand for everything, and to another less noticeable consequence. In conditions of shortage of any key resource, consolidation always occurs. This means that instead of a large number of players, they turn out to be few, but very large - we have it, and this is primarily a consequence of a lack of money (although also administrative pressure). And this, like any factor that reduces competition, leads to limited development and higher prices. Moreover, high rates and directly increase them, through inflation of costs. So the lack of money and, as a result, high rates turn out to be not an anti-, but a pro-inflationary factor.

The main argument of opponents of increasing the volume of money supply and lending is that the money will be on the foreign exchange market tomorrow, with clear consequences for the exchange rate. Even very serious economists assert that since there is a large outflow of capital, it means that the available money supply is quite sufficient, otherwise it would be pulled away by the domestic market. If confidence in the national currency and in general in one's country gets stronger, then more money will be needed, as in China. Basically they are right. But in order to understand what this rightness is worth, imagine that robberies, kidnappings and the slave trade and trafficking in any drugs are officially allowed. And then they will say - well, you see, basically they are engaged in this, and not work. Well, yes, they do it precisely because they can, but cut off all these opportunities and they will start working. This, in fact, happened during the transition from the early Middle Ages to the developed one. It is the same in our example: if everything can be converted into currency and taken out of the country, they will do so, but if they cut it, they will start normal commerce: they have to earn money somehow. It is clear that the root of everything is a little trust in one's country, which is not at all surprising after 30 years of defeatist and Russophobic propaganda, including in the state media and even from the lips of state officials. Well, if you sit and wait for it to change, it will never change. And we will block the undesirable areas of activity, thereby forcing us to work and earn money in the directions that are desirable for the country - this will strengthen it in every sense, and there trust will appear. Actually, in the aforementioned China it was, and still is, exactly like that.

Therefore, the second way out of the crisis, and the main one, is to launch a printing press. I specifically use these harsh words - otherwise one of the opponents will express them anyway. And they should not be ashamed, because we just need to return to the normal state of monetary circulation. And the introduced currency regulation will not allow money to pour into the foreign exchange market! This is its main consequence and purpose. True, one must understand that part of the money will rush there even if speculative foreign exchange transactions are impossible - for legitimate imports. And these volumes will be large, simply because it is intellectually and organizationally much easier to import something and sell it than to produce and sell something new (although it is also not easy, make no mistake). If only because the production still needs to be created. That is why we consider production to be a higher kind of business than trade. True, here we are talking about speculative trade, and a hypermarket or a logistics center is not fundamentally different from a factory. And we do not need a significant increase in imports, even from friendly countries. True, the best restrictor of imports is the exchange rate, which, as I said, will no longer be 30 rubles per dollar, if only because oil prices will rebound, but not to $105 per barrel.

Nevertheless, it seems to me that when credit emission is included, investment in imports should be discouraged in relation to investments within the country - not much, but slightly. Increasing duties is bad, it discourages imports solely by raising prices, which is not good, because a significant amount of it is still inevitable for us and this will accelerate inflation. It is proposed not to make it more expensive, but to complicate it - by introducing an advance payment of the alleged profit tax on imports. This is similar to the fact that the bank, when issuing a loan, will not increase the rate, but will raise the requirement for collateral - this will limit the circle of borrowers, but will not lead to an increase in costs. Here, apparently, there should be an exemption for importing means of production and raw materials according to the list of commodity groups. Another way is to introduce separate accounting and different standards for banks in terms of issuing consumer loans for the purchase of domestic and imported goods (services), this should be done in any case.

So, we will seriously block the ways of getting money to the foreign exchange market, after which we can start actually issuing money. In 2–3 years, I think it should be increased to 30 trillion rubles on an accrual basis, that is, the same amount as it is now - in other words, to bring the aggregate M2 of the money supply to 60 trillion rubles. If this were done overnight now (that is, not taking into account the possible change in GDP and deflators), it would still be lower in percentage of GDP than in Europe. Nevertheless, caution must be exercised here, and for the first six months or a year, I would set a limit of 10-15 trillion.

This should happen like this: the Central Bank issues to all interested banks (an option - to all of the first two hundred of the official rating or with some other formal list limitation) loans in an amount tied to the amount of capital or assets (for example, two capitals or a quarter of assets, according to last quarter's reporting). The main thing is that neither the Central Bank nor the government determine on a personal level who to give how much. Naturally, we will have to revise a number of Central Bank standards, such as capital adequacy, so that this does not come into conflict. It is fundamentally important that they should not be issued against the security of liquid assets, as we have always done, and not even against the security of issued loans, as we have begun now, but simply against the bank’s balance sheet - we have professional enough control over the banking system to prevent large-scale abuse.

Loans should be issued for a period of 3-10 years, possibly according to the standard - such and such a percentage of the total amount - for 3, such and such - for 5, such and such - for 10 years, of course, with the right to early repayment without penalties. But certainly with payments starting from the first year, at least for interest - otherwise banks will consider it as a freebie. The interest rate should be in the range of 3-4%, possibly with differentiation by term, and possibly by some formal parameters of the borrowing bank that determine its reliability.

It is important, however, not to create the slightest preference for state-owned banks - Sberbank, VTB, VEB and Rosselkhozbank. They already occupy an absurdly large place in our banking system, drinking literally all the juices out of it (moreover, it’s not their fault - this is an objective situation), and it would be nice to just use the proposed changes to naturally reduce their place in the market, which is all however, it will remain large. The Central Bank will also have to determine the order of the transition period, namely, what to do with existing deposit and loan agreements, especially mortgages, where the rate is much higher, because as a result of a loan issue of such a scale and with such parameters, the interest rate market will find a new equilibrium in areas 5–7%.

You can first regulate the margin, say, 2.0-2.5%, but not for long, no more than a year - then it will balance itself. There will be a lot of money, competition for a borrower will increase, this will become a buyer's market. As for the security of loans on the part of the borrower, the Central Bank will also have to somewhat reduce the requirements, without bringing this, of course, to the point of absurdity - this should mainly concern the standards for project financing and lending to start-ups, for the latter the state can take some of the responsibility.

One process will definitely go naturally - taking loans to replace those already taken at a higher rate. It does not need to be interfered with, on the contrary, it is useful for the economy, because money in the amount of the loan body will still remain in circulation. Probably, at first, the Central Bank will also have to introduce for a short time the norms for the distribution of funds received from it by banks between lending to businesses, mortgages and other types of lending to individuals (consumer lending, general purpose lending, etc.). At the same time, consumer lending for any imported goods and services should be both severely limited by direct norms and become very expensive through reserve norms.

Will this cause a surge in inflation, as the liberals claim (however, exclusively ours - the Americans are the only way to deal with crises)? I don't think so, if it does, it will be small. Because the part that will go to lending to businesses (which, in my opinion, should be at least 70-75%), is inflationary low-risk, like any capital investment. On the other hand, there will be no inflation of costs, the cost of everything in the country will decrease due to a significant reduction in loan payments (this does not guarantee a reduction in prices, but this is an anti-inflationary measure). Plus, the circle of economic entities will immediately begin to grow strongly, especially as a result of this and the measures described below, and this is an increase in competition. And, finally, the analysis shows that in the past (the first half of the 1990s) emission led to hyperinflation to a large extent through the entry of a significant part of it into the foreign exchange market, the collapse of the ruble and, accordingly, the rise in the cost of imports - and we block this.

But the positive effect of this will be stunning, it has happened many times in history, so there is no need to guess. It's like with vitamins: if you have enough or even not enough vitamin, but just a little, then from the fact that you start taking it, there will be no pronounced effect. But if you have a critical vitamin deficiency ... If a person with scurvy in the last stage is given vitamin C, then the person lying near death will get up and walk, and in a couple of days he will run. There is no reason to believe that our economy will react differently.

economic freedom

Let us ask ourselves a question: does the population of Russia have economic freedom? It seems like a strange question, private enterprise is allowed, why not. But the old Soviet principle “Do I have the right?.. Yes, you have. So can I? .. No, you can’t,” no one canceled. If we somehow measure the difficulties of starting a new business in Russia (not registration - this is a small part - but the whole complex of actions before it starts functioning), then this value will be many times greater than, for example, in the United States. Why exactly? We have analyzed one reason, the low availability of credit. The other part, the low effective demand of potential customers, is also largely associated with the low availability of credit, especially for B2B businesses. In the next place, with a small margin, is the licensing system.

It seems that no permits are needed to open a business, but this is generally, and then it begins. I want to open a cafe - well, it's a cafe, catering, a special case, a license is needed. And a separate one for alcohol. Okay, then I'd better open a store (note that I call the most common businesses, not exotic ones). Well, these are products, a special case. Okay, then I'll open a small production. Well, this is ecology, a special case. As a result, it turns out that almost all cases are special, it is not a special problem to come up with, and it will just be exotic. Some businesses need a license as a type of activity, and it comes to a joke: for example, in order for a doctor or several doctors to open a practice, you need to obtain a license. When I tell doctors in the USA about this, they simply do not believe me. How so, they say, but the state has already handed you a license after receiving a diploma?! By the way, they have it formalized - right after the diploma, a young doctor (or a lawyer, the same thing) receives a nationwide license for the right to work as a doctor, and then on the basis of it in the state where he decided to work, he receives an unconditional license in a week state. Other businesses do not seem to require a license (some time ago they were thinned out, thank God), but dozens of permits are needed to open an object.

Just don't think, like many of our publicists, that this is specifically to extort bribes. It's ridiculous - laws and regulations are adopted in one place, and bribes are taken in completely different places. In fact, this is mainly the psychological inertia of the Soviet system, plus the firm conviction of any state, regional or municipal official that all business without exception are crooks and fools (which may not be far from the truth), and civil servants are all responsible and highly professional (no comments). ) and in general the state stands as a thin chain of bayonets separating the country from chaos.

I would agree with the latter, but not in the matter of opening a cafe or a grocery store. Just think, if preventive sanitary and epidemiological control did not exist at all, would you really be poisoned from the heart right at every catering point? No, of course, no one has canceled criminal liability, no one wants to sit down. In the 19th century there was no sanitary and epidemiological control, but, judging by the memoirs, no one, going to a tavern with his family, said goodbye and did not leave a will. Of course, they can yawn, well, so can a medical officer, even without any corruption (which, however, has not been eliminated either). And will they be poisoned more, in quantitative terms? Probably more, though probably not by much. On the other hand, a significant amount of resources would be released, and the economic freedom of the enterprising part of the population would increase. Like the inventors of supermarkets, self-service stores in their time. They were told: they will steal, you will go bankrupt! And they answered - and we specifically calculated how much they would steal on average, and this is not much, we will save much more on sellers. And so it happened.

How can you measure human health by money, opponents will be indignant. And I will answer: if on one side of the scale there is diarrhea, and on the other the economic prosperity of the country, I choose the second. In general, for some reason, in matters of combating much more dangerous offenses, for example, property crimes, it never occurs to anyone to focus on prevention, for example, to chain the cashier to the workplace so that he cannot steal and run away - his fear of 5 or 8 years in prison seems like a sufficient deterrent to everyone. What is different about opening a cafe, I don't understand. On the contrary, there, in addition to the fear of sitting down, which theoretically can be paid off (which is also not sugar for a businessman), there is also the fear that a couple of people will tell their friends that they have been carried away, and they will stop going to you - and then who will you bring?

Yes, and look how many fires happen in our country, with victims, including, as in "Lame Horse", is it strongly hindered by the fact that they received a fire-fighting permit? No, all these phobias are irrational, and the fight should be transferred to the fear of sitting down. That's the way it is in America, at least in all prosperous states, but our people are afraid of prison and understand that they will thunder there like pretty little ones, no less than Americans.

If so, then we need to dramatically reduce the number of required permissions. The same restaurant should be opened without a single permit. Instead, it is necessary to bring the rules for each section (sanitary and epidemiological, fire prevention, environmental, construction, etc.) into a single set and take a subscription from the final beneficiary, who is familiar with the responsibility for violating this. To a large extent, this already exists - for example, SNiP (building codes and rules). And if they don’t want to disclose the ultimate beneficiary (although this is a rare case in small businesses), then let them get all the permissions. At the same time, it is necessary to create working groups for each type of rules and revise them, allocating them to this tough time like a year - many of them are already outdated 20 years ago.

Just do not listen to representatives of the relevant federal executive bodies - they will only slow down this work. There are enough experts in the country without them. There should be almost no licensed types of activity left, just a few. And those should basically be given to a person, not a company, once and for all, like a doctor's practice in the example mentioned or a driver's license (in English, by the way, they are called a license). The same goes for permission to open an object. This work has been repeatedly declared as necessary, a lot has even been done, but clearly not enough. Perhaps a crisis is needed in order to complete this process. And if in any industry or in any region, due to specifics, it would still be completely scary to rely on the entrepreneur's fear of punishment, compulsory insurance of professional and / or civil liability can be introduced. The insurance market is quite ripe for this, and the state supervisory authorities - to control it. And it is a much more tolerable barrier to entry into business.

As for administrative arbitrariness and corruption extortion, these are institutional issues and any most successful fight against them cannot be of an anti-crisis nature due to the large time required for this. The only thing that can be done is to create a separate service to protect businesses, primarily small and medium-sized ones (the big one will protect anyone you want), and not in the form of all sorts of ombudsmen, but as an ordinary special service - with operational units, physical protection groups, etc. It has also been discussed for a long time. This will not give a very big result, but it will give some, and the psychological one, if presented correctly in the media, will be even more. But this can be done quickly, and all the active special services will be happy - new resources and career opportunities, after all, people will not be recruited from the street.

Import substitution and reindustrialization

Import substitution as a process can be divided into two groups. The first one is when it occurs, under appropriate conditions, by additional loading of existing capacities. This is not a matter of state policy, in any case microeconomic - given the low exchange rate of the ruble and the availability of loans, business itself will load them up, and what exactly, the state will figure out better. This was the case in 1998-1999, but now, unfortunately, the reserves of this are small, otherwise this article would not have had to be written. And the second group is where it is necessary to create new capacities for import substitution. Here the business will also swing, but it can take 10-15 years even under the most favorable conditions (which are not), because, as they say, making a decision on any major investment is a duel between cowardice and greed. And wins it more often, alas, the first. Especially when the country does not have 250 years of capitalism behind its back, during which there have been different things, but the state has never expropriated anything. This, as you understand, is not about us. If the time factor is important - and it is critical, as soon as they want to strangle us - then the state cannot sit on the sidelines under the mantra “the market will arrange everything by itself”: it will arrange it, but when it will be too late.

Therefore, it is necessary to order market research by industry using the outsourcing method, which plants make sense to build to replace imports, and then make decisions based on them. In my experience, this work can be done in six months. The criteria should be as follows: a) the volume of imports of the relevant products; b) the country(s)-sources of imports - the worst of all is the United States, at the other extreme China; c) the country(s) where the corresponding plant can be purchased - the priority list is the same; d) availability of raw materials by country; e) return on capital required for construction; f) usefulness for the general technological culture of the Russian industry; g) availability of markets for exports. When all this is brought together across the entire range of imports, a common priority list should be created. And from it, choose as many positions from above as you don't feel sorry for the money, depending on oil prices, for example. Considering the scale, this is the President's decision.

Contracts should be awarded to consulting firms specializing in the development of new businesses. Even if you do not trust them with the choice of an equipment supplier and negotiations with him, they are needed so that in return for the money spent, not a plant appears, but a whole corporation ready to work on the market. With marketing, service centers, corporate structure, etc. And the choice of the model range is not entirely the business of the supplier of the plant itself, which, in general, does not care what to produce within the capabilities of the equipment. In general, it is necessary to approach it as a business project, and not a plant. This is the difference from the purchase of factories in the days of the USSR. And it is very easy to sell such a corporation, for example, through the sale of shares, especially when it reaches current profit. And it needs to be sold, because building it for billions, realizing the threat, before the merchants swing, is the business of the state. And to exploit an already working asset is not. Moreover, everyone knows that a successfully implemented business project in the industry is sold for significantly more money than was spent. This is for those who will stand up with their breasts to protect public money from the state itself. But there will also be a big taxpayer.

Strictly speaking, this is not an anti-crisis, that is, a quick-acting measure - a large plant cannot be built earlier than in 5 years. But all the more reason to start it now, since the confrontation with the West is for a long time, even if the main part or even all of the sanctions are lifted in 2015 (which I strongly doubt). In addition, a construction site of this magnitude is in itself a large contribution to GDP. And the atmosphere of "movement" will create better than anything else, but it is sorely lacking.

taxes

I will make an observation that will seem strange to most (except specialists, of course): our taxes are not high and certainly are not a limiting factor in the economy. However, believe me, as a business owner in the US, they are small in terms of the total burden for the entrepreneur. VAT, however, is a very harmful tax for the economy as a whole, since, by imposing value added, it encourages not to add it. And, of course, it needs to be changed - perhaps to a retail sales tax, perhaps to a turnover tax or something else. It's just that the government has been working on it for a long time. But this measure is by no means anti-crisis - it is madness to change the main tax during a crisis for something unfamiliar. And this will give a result only in the medium term, even if successful.

But this is about the actual taxes, in the narrow sense. But contributions to social funds with a rate of about 30% (however, they are now also called a tax, a single social one) - this is a scourge, especially for small and medium-sized businesses. For large companies, such as natural monopolies and those approaching them, it is very little noticeable, since the share of wages in their revenues and profits is relatively small. And for small and medium businesses, especially for start-ups, it is number one in terms of oppression. Not least because when you create a new business, there is no profit and added value before the start of the operating period, because there are no sales yet, and no one charges you the corresponding taxes. And you already have to pay the UST, since people are needed at the preparation stage. In general, no one in startups pays it in full and is not going to pay it (they manage with black salaries), and not only in startups. But this is another barrier to entry into the business - many do not want to be violators right from the start.

It cannot be said that the authorities are unaware of this problem - moreover, there was even a 14% UST rate for certain categories of small businesses and gave a very positive result in terms of the legalization of salaries. But, like many other things, this is not enough in a crisis. It seems that it is necessary to cancel the UST for 3 years for all payers, except for large ones, for whom this is not important. Or, as a palliative, - only for all new enterprises. Naturally, something needs to be compensated for in the budget, most likely, spending should be reviewed. This is better than building a high-speed Moscow-Kazan highway. Only for contractors and their beneficiaries is not better.

I don't want to stretch the conclusion. I think that if this is implemented, in January 2016 Russia will no longer be recognized.